Silicon Metal Prices Remain Stagnant at Low Levels with Fluctuations, Wafer Quotations Show Positive Trend [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Oct. 22:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal prices held steady across regions this week, with caking silicon coal in Xinjiang at 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, non-caking silicon coal averaging 825 yuan/mt, silicon coal in Inner Mongolia averaging 1,190 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal in Gansu averaging 900 yuan/mt, pellet coal averaging 1,020 yuan/mt, and silicon coal in Shaanxi averaging 750 yuan/mt.

Supply: Coal washing plants continued to adopt a sales-based production strategy for scheduling, with supply basically stable WoW.

Demand: Demand was basically flat WoW, with overall demand mainly rigid. Demand in south-west China is expected to gradually decrease due to silicon plant shutdowns during the dry season.

Silicon Metal

Price: Spot silicon metal prices remained low and stagnant. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day, with some spot and futures-linked sources trading as low as around 9,200 yuan/mt. The futures market remained weak, with the lowest point at 8,400 yuan/mt yesterday, closing at 8,505 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous day. Downstream buyers' sentiment to drive down prices maintained low-price transactions in the market.

Production:

Silicon metal operating rates in Xinjiang continued to rise in October, and national silicon metal supply maintained an increase.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: As of Oct. 9, SMM statistics showed total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 545,000 mt, up 2,000 mt from before the National Day holiday. This included 120,000 mt in general social warehouses, flat WoW from pre-holiday, and 425,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), up 2,000 mt from pre-holiday. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: Current offers were 11,100-11,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Despite cost support and relatively reduced supply keeping DMC prices relatively firm, downstream customers remained cautious in procurement due to unimproved end-use demand and its continued weakness. If back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream intensify further, prices could face some pressure.

D4: Current offers were 11,200-12,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: Current offers were 11,400-11,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw Gum: Current offers were 11,500-12,200 yuan/mt, flat from last week.

Silicone Oil: Current offers were 12,500-13,400 yuan/mt, flat from last week.

Production:

As some monomer plants entered maintenance last week, overall monomer plant operating rates declined, and supply also decreased slightly.

Inventory:

Enterprise inventory levels were basically flat WoW, but if monomer enterprises' new order taking falls short of expectations during the back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, a slight inventory buildup will occur.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 50.6-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon was 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index was 52.75 yuan/kg. Market prices were largely stable, with no substantial increase yet. The market awaits the latest quotes from the new round of order signing at month-end.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in October was expected to be around 134,000 mt. Currently, supply still exceeds downstream demand, and production cuts are anticipated in some regions in November.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventory increased slightly this week. The pace of polysilicon order signing slowed down, and wafer enterprises currently exhibit a strong wait-and-see sentiment towards order signing.

Wafer

Price

The market price for N-type 18X wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers was 1.38-1.4 yuan/piece. Recently, wafer enterprises showed strong sentiment for price increases, but actual transaction conditions may be closely related to raw material price adjustments at month-end. Demand for 210N wafers increased due to requirements for larger module sizes.

Production

Wafer production saw a relatively significant increase in October. Operating rates at top-tier enterprises increased rather than decreased, and some specialized factories also had plans to raise production. Overall, based on association quotas for Q4, wafer enterprises are basically set to cut production in November-December.

Inventory

Recent internal transfers of wafer inventory were noticeable, with downstream raw material inventory shifting to upstream finished product inventories, leading to a slight overall inventory buildup trend. Total inventory is currently below a reasonable level, and enterprises are shipping smoothly.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

The current domestic price for inner-layer sand was 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand was 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand was 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Imported sand prices fell again, with spot order high prices now down to less than 90,000 yuan/mt, and traders still willing to see further declines. Recent domestic demand remained sluggish compared to the previous period, leading to decreased procurement demand. Meanwhile, the supply side has growth expectations, increasing the risk of a domestic quartz sand supply surplus and putting downward pressure on prices.

Production

Domestic sand enterprises maintained high operating rates in October, with domestic sand production still increasing slightly, and imported sand supply also rising.

Inventory

Sand enterprises recently experienced continuous inventory buildup. Production is expected to decrease after raw material consumption bottoms out, and inventory is also projected to stop increasing.